By Sanskriti Global Exports by Himanshu Gupta

The Compass Points to Change: Navigating India's Trade Landscape in Early 2026

Date: January 10, 2026

As we step further into 2026, the global trade environment continues its dynamic evolution, presenting a complex tapestry of opportunities and challenges for India's vibrant import-export community. The first few weeks of the year have already brought significant developments, from landmark progress in bilateral trade negotiations to crucial domestic policy shifts and new infrastructure milestones. For the discerning trade professional, understanding these undercurrents is not just beneficial—it is essential for survival and growth.

This analysis moves beyond the headlines to dissect the critical news from the past week. We will provide a factual summary of key events and, more importantly, translate them into actionable insights. What do these changes mean for your supply chain, your pricing strategy, and your long-term market access? Let's delve into the strategic imperatives for Indian businesses aiming to thrive in this new era of international commerce.

Factual Summary: Key Developments This Week

The trade landscape was shaped by four pivotal events over the last few days, each with far-reaching consequences.

1. Breakthrough in India-UK FTA Negotiations

Sources in both New Delhi and London have confirmed that a significant breakthrough has been achieved in the long-negotiated India-UK Free Trade Agreement. The latest round of talks concluded with a mutual agreement on contentious chapters, including rules of origin for automotive components and phased tariff reductions for agricultural products and Scotch whisky. While the final text is yet to be signed, officials suggest an 'agreement in principle' has been reached on over 90% of the chapters, paving the way for a potential signing ceremony in the second quarter of 2026.

2. DGFT Notifies Expansion of RoDTEP Scheme

In a move welcomed by industry, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) issued Notification No. 74/2025-26, expanding the scope of the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme. Effective February 1, 2026, the scheme will now include select products under HS Chapters 28, 29 (Organic and Inorganic Chemicals), and 30 (Pharmaceutical Products) that were previously excluded. The remission rates for these new additions range from 0.8% to 2.1%, aimed at neutralizing embedded taxes and enhancing the competitiveness of these high-value export sectors.

3. New Container Terminal at Mundra Port Becomes Fully Operational

Adani Ports has announced the full commissioning of its new, highly automated container terminal at Mundra Port. The terminal, with an additional capacity of 1.5 million TEUs annually, is equipped with state-of-the-art ship-to-shore cranes and an AI-powered terminal operating system. This development is a major milestone in the National Logistics Policy, aimed at reducing vessel turnaround times and decongesting India's busiest trade gateway.

4. EU Issues Stricter Guidance on CBAM Reporting

The European Commission has released updated technical guidance for non-EU producers under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The new guidelines mandate more granular data on embedded emissions for consignments of steel, aluminum, and fertilisers. The transitional reporting period is set to end later this year, and this guidance signals the EU's intent to strictly enforce compliance, putting the onus on Indian exporters to have robust, verifiable carbon accounting systems in place.

Implications for Indian Import-Export Professionals

These developments are not just news items; they are strategic signals that require immediate attention and planning. Here is our analysis of what they mean for your business:

• UK FTA - First-Mover Advantage vs. Compliance Burden: The impending FTA with the UK is a monumental opportunity. Exporters in textiles, automotive parts, and pharmaceuticals should immediately begin identifying UK-based partners and re-evaluating their pricing strategies to leverage tariff reductions. However, this also means preparing for stringent 'Rules of Origin' compliance. Importers must gear up for increased competition from UK-made machinery and high-end consumer goods.
• RoDTEP Expansion - A Shot in the Arm for Chemicals & Pharma: The inclusion of key chemical and pharma products is a direct boost to the bottom line for exporters in these sectors. This enhanced margin can be used to either offer more competitive pricing in markets like Latin America and Africa or be reinvested into R&D and capacity expansion. It's crucial to update your costing sheets and ensure your documentation is flawless to claim these new benefits from day one.
• Infrastructure Upgrade - Re-evaluating Logistics Networks: The new terminal at Mundra isn't just about one port. It will create a ripple effect across India's west coast logistics network. Businesses should engage their freight forwarders to assess if shipping through Mundra now offers a better cost and time equation compared to JNPT or other ports. This could lead to a redrawing of inland transportation routes and warehousing strategies to optimize supply chains.
• EU's CBAM - The Green Wall Gets Higher: The message from the EU is crystal clear: environmental compliance is non-negotiable. For exporters in the metal and cement sectors, investing in carbon accounting software and processes is no longer optional; it is a license to operate in the EU market. This is a critical moment to explore greener manufacturing processes and potentially pivot towards 'green steel' or 'low-carbon aluminum' as a key market differentiator. Failure to do so will result in prohibitive carbon taxes, rendering products uncompetitive.
• The Currency Question: Underlying these developments is the persistent volatility of the USD/INR exchange rate. With major policy shifts and global trade realignments, currency risk management becomes paramount. Businesses should be actively exploring hedging strategies to protect their margins from adverse currency movements, especially on long-term export contracts.

Conclusion: The Proactive Exporter's Playbook

The start of 2026 reinforces a fundamental truth of modern trade: stasis is not an option. The landscape is being actively reshaped by policy, technology, and geopolitics. The winners will be those who move from a reactive to a proactive stance. The progress on the UK FTA, the expansion of RoDTEP, the enhancement of port infrastructure, and the formalization of green trade barriers are not isolated events. They are interconnected pieces of a larger puzzle.

For the Indian import-export professional, the immediate task is to map these developments against their own business models. It requires a strategic review of target markets, supply chain efficiencies, compliance frameworks, and financial planning. While challenges like the EU's CBAM demand significant investment, the opportunities presented by new FTAs and supportive domestic policies offer a clear path to growth. The key is to act now, stay informed, and build the agility to navigate the currents of change.

Source: Original