By Sanskriti Global Exports by Himanshu Gupta

Trade Winds of Change: Analysing the October 9th Roundup for Indian Exporters

Date: October 10, 2025

Good morning. As we dissect the key trade developments from yesterday, a complex but familiar picture emerges for the Indian import-export community: one of significant domestic opportunity tempered by formidable international headwinds. The government's forward-looking policy push into green sectors is a welcome signal, but it arrives alongside tightening regulatory screws from our largest trading partners and persistent, on-the-ground logistical friction. Today, we'll move beyond the headlines to provide a strategic analysis of what these developments mean for your balance sheets, supply chains, and future growth.

Yesterday's news cycle was dominated by four pivotal stories: the announcement of the much-anticipated Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme 3.0, the finalisation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) framework, a critical logistics snarl at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT), and a sharp, unexpected surge in global steel prices. Each of these events, in isolation, is significant. Together, they create a challenging and dynamic environment that demands immediate attention and agile planning from every professional in our field. Let's break down the facts before diving into the strategic implications.

A Factual Summary of Key Developments

Yesterday's trade news presented a mix of policy initiatives and market shocks. Here is a summary of the core events that shaped the day:

1. Government Announces PLI 3.0 for Green Hydrogen & Advanced Textiles: In a major policy announcement, the Commerce and Industry Ministry unveiled the framework for PLI Scheme 3.0. With an initial outlay of ₹25,000 crore, the scheme aims to incentivise domestic manufacturing and export of green hydrogen electrolysers and advanced technical textiles. The stated goal is to position India as a global manufacturing hub in these sunrise sectors, reducing import dependency and boosting high-value exports.

2. EU Finalises CBAM Reporting and Sets Provisional Tariff Rates: Sources in Brussels confirmed that the European Commission has finalised the definitive reporting structure for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, set to take full effect from January 1, 2026. Crucially, they also released provisional tariff guidelines based on current EU carbon prices, which will apply to non-compliant imports of steel, aluminium, cement, and fertilisers. The move signals an end to the transitional phase and puts immediate pressure on exporting nations, including India, to align with EU's stringent environmental standards.

3. Record Congestion at JNPT Amid New AI-Scanning Rollout: India's busiest container port, JNPT, reported record-high turnaround times, with shipping lines citing delays of up to 72 hours. The congestion is being attributed to teething issues with the newly implemented, mandatory AI-powered container scanning system. While the system is designed to enhance security and reduce clearance times in the long run, its initial rollout has created significant bottlenecks, impacting both import and export schedules.

4. Global Steel Prices Surge 8% on Supply Chain Disruptions: International commodity markets were rattled by an 8% single-day jump in the price of benchmark hot-rolled coil steel. Analysts attribute the spike to a combination of fresh lockdown measures impacting production in a major Southeast Asian manufacturing hub and unexpected logistical disruptions at key Australian mining ports. The surge has immediate cost implications for a wide range of industries, from automotive to construction and consumer goods manufacturing.

Implications for Indian Import-Export Professionals

Understanding the news is one thing; translating it into actionable business strategy is another. Here are the direct implications of yesterday's developments for your operations:

• PLI 3.0: A Call for Strategic Realignment. For businesses in or adjacent to the textiles and renewable energy sectors, this is a clear signal to act. Exporters should immediately evaluate the eligibility criteria for manufacturing advanced textiles to gain a competitive edge. Importers of green hydrogen components may need to reassess their sourcing strategies as domestic manufacturing becomes more viable and potentially more cost-effective. This is the time to prepare business plans, engage with industry bodies, and explore new capital expenditure aligned with this national priority.
• CBAM: The Compliance Clock is Ticking Loudly. The finalisation of the EU's CBAM rules is the most critical takeaway for any Indian company exporting metals, cement, or fertilisers to Europe. The 'wait-and-see' period is over. Businesses must now:
  1. Invest in Carbon Accounting: You can no longer afford to estimate your carbon footprint. Precise, verifiable measurement and reporting at the product level are now non-negotiable for EU market access.
  2. Model for Higher Costs: Factor the provisional CBAM tariffs into your 2026 pricing strategies. You must decide whether to absorb this cost, pass it on to buyers, or invest in decarbonisation to mitigate it.
  3. Engage Your Supply Chain: Your product's carbon footprint includes your suppliers. Proactive engagement to gather data and encourage greener practices down the value chain is now essential.
• JNPT Gridlock: A Stress Test for Supply Chain Resilience. The situation at JNPT is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of centralised logistics. Exporters with time-sensitive orders must immediately communicate with freight forwarders and shipping lines to manage client expectations. Building buffer time into your delivery schedules is now a necessity. This is also a prompt to actively explore diversifying your port strategy, evaluating the feasibility of using ports like Mundra or Chennai, even if it involves higher inland logistics costs, to de-risk your operations.
• Steel Price Volatility: Margin Pressure Mounts. The 8% surge in steel prices directly impacts both importers of specialty steel and exporters of engineered goods. Importers should review their inventory levels and consider hedging strategies or forward contracts to lock in prices. Exporters in sectors like auto components and capital goods must immediately review their costing models. Renegotiating contracts with clients to include raw material price escalation clauses should be a top priority to protect your margins from this external shock.

Conclusion: Navigating the Confluence of Opportunity and Risk

The developments of October 9, 2025, perfectly encapsulate the dual reality of modern Indian trade. On one hand, the government is actively creating high-growth opportunities in future-focused sectors. On the other, global regulatory pressures and logistical realities demand unprecedented levels of diligence, compliance, and strategic foresight. The winners in this complex environment will not be those who simply react, but those who proactively invest in greening their operations, diversifying their logistics, and building resilient, transparent supply chains. The message is clear: the future of Indian trade belongs to the agile.

Source: Original