By Sanskriti Global Exports by Himanshu Gupta

Navigating the Crosscurrents: A Strategic Briefing for Indian Trade on Today's Global Shifts

Date: November 13, 2025

Good morning. In the relentless churn of global commerce, standing still is moving backward. Today’s trade roundup is not merely a collection of headlines; it’s a strategic map outlining new compliance mountains to climb, geopolitical fault lines to navigate, and promising new markets to explore. For the Indian import-export community, the developments from Brussels, Washington, and South America represent a pivotal moment. The era of passive exporting is definitively over. What is required now is proactive adaptation, strategic foresight, and a deep understanding of the forces reshaping our supply chains. This briefing will dissect the key events of the day and translate them into actionable intelligence for your business.

Factual Summary: The Day's Key Developments

Our analysis is based on a confluence of reports from major global trade bodies and financial news outlets. The following four developments demand immediate attention:

1. EU Announces Details for CBAM Phase 2: The European Commission has officially unveiled the framework for the next phase of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect from January 2027. The critical update is the expansion of its scope beyond the initial sectors (iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen). The mechanism will now include key polymers, organic chemicals, and certain finished goods, such as automotive components. Furthermore, the reporting requirements for embedded emissions will become more stringent, with a reduced allowance for using default values and a greater emphasis on verified, plant-level data.

2. US-China Trade Posture Shifts: Washington has signalled a nuanced but significant shift in its trade policy towards China. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has initiated a review process for Section 301 tariffs on a specific list of Chinese consumer goods, hinting at a potential easing to combat domestic inflation. Simultaneously, and in a move that complicates the narrative, the USTR has launched a new investigation into alleged unfair subsidies within China’s electric vehicle (EV) battery and green energy supply chains. This dual approach creates both uncertainty and targeted pressure.

3. India-Mercosur Trade Talks Gain Formal Momentum: In a significant boost for India's market diversification efforts, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry has confirmed that formal talks to significantly expand the existing Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with the Mercosur bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) will commence in January 2026. The current, limited PTA covers under 500 tariff lines. The stated goal of the new negotiations is to expand this to over 3,000 tariff lines, with a focus on securing preferential access for Indian pharmaceuticals, auto components, and engineering goods, in exchange for easier access for Mercosur's agricultural products.

4. Major Shipping Lines Introduce 'Green Transition Surcharge': A consortium of leading global shipping carriers, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has announced a new, mandatory "Green Transition Surcharge" (GTS) on all container bookings, effective from Q2 2026. This surcharge is intended to fund the industry's multi-billion dollar investment in new-generation, methanol-powered vessels and greener fuel infrastructure. Initial estimates place the surcharge at between $50-$75 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit), with variations based on trade lane. On a positive note, reports indicate that port congestion at the key transshipment hub of Singapore has eased considerably, reducing vessel waiting times to under 24 hours for the first time in six months.

Implications for Indian Import-Export Professionals

Understanding these events is one thing; preparing for their impact is another. Here is our breakdown of what this means for your operations:

• The CBAM Challenge Intensifies: The expansion of CBAM to chemicals and polymers is a direct challenge to one of India's key export sectors. Businesses in these areas must now urgently begin the process of measuring, reporting, and verifying their carbon footprint (Scope 1 and 2 emissions). This is no longer just a compliance issue for steel and aluminium; it's a market access prerequisite for a growing list of goods. Actionable Insight: Invest immediately in carbon accounting systems and explore green manufacturing technologies. This is a capital expense that must be viewed as a license to operate in the EU market.
• Recalibrating Your US Strategy: The US-China dynamic presents a double-edged sword. If tariffs on Chinese consumer goods are lifted, Indian exporters in categories like textiles, handicrafts, and light consumer electronics will face renewed, intense price competition in the US market. However, the probe into China’s EV battery sector could accelerate the 'China Plus One' strategy for global automotive players, creating a significant opening for Indian manufacturers of auto components and, potentially, future battery tech to integrate into North American supply chains. Actionable Insight: Diversify your US client portfolio and highlight non-price advantages like quality, reliability, and ESG compliance. For auto-part makers, this is the time to aggressively court US and European firms looking to de-risk their supply chains.
• The Mercosur Opportunity is Real and Imminent: The formalisation of PTA talks is your cue to begin market research and groundwork in South America. This is arguably the most significant untapped market for Indian value-added products. For our pharmaceutical exporters, Brazil and Argentina represent massive potential. For auto component manufacturers, it's a gateway to the continent's burgeoning automotive industry. Actionable Insight: Begin identifying potential distribution partners in São Paulo and Buenos Aires. Understand the regulatory and logistics landscape of these markets now, so you are ready to act the moment tariff reductions are confirmed.
• Factoring in the Unavoidable Cost of Green Shipping: The Green Transition Surcharge is a direct, non-negotiable hit to your logistics budget. For low-margin products, a $75 per TEU increase is significant and must be factored into your Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) pricing models for all 2026 contracts. The easing of congestion in Singapore is welcome news, potentially shortening lead times and reducing the risk of demurrage charges, but it does not offset the new, permanent surcharge. Actionable Insight: Immediately communicate with your freight forwarders to get precise estimates of the GTS's impact on your key trade lanes. Renegotiate with buyers to see if these new, transparent environmental costs can be shared.

Conclusion: The Imperative of Agility

The landscape detailed today underscores a fundamental truth of modern trade: stability is an illusion. Success is no longer just about competitive pricing; it is about building resilient, intelligent, and adaptable trade operations. The EU's CBAM demands transparency and green investment. The US-China rivalry demands agility and diversification. The Mercosur talks demand bold, early-mover exploration. And the evolution of global logistics demands rigorous financial planning. Indian importers and exporters who treat these developments not as threats but as signals—prompts to innovate, diversify, and invest in sustainable practices—will be the ones who not only survive but thrive in the complex world of 2026 and beyond.

Source: Original